The conventional wisdom in Washington is that Hugo Chavez is no threat to US interests. He is merely a demagogue who can be safely ignored. This is the general perspective of recent op-eds in the Washington Post. President Bush is now quoted approvingly in pro-appeasement circles, mostly the career professionals at State and DoD, that Hugo Chavez "is not a threat." With this decided, the House and Senate oversight committees for the Western Hemisphere can go back to sleep.
But wait a minute. Hugo Chavez protege Lopez Obrador is inciting mob rule in Mexico in order to topple the government. Daniel Ortega is returning to power in Nicaragua in order to again destabilize Central America. In Bolivia, Evo Morales is trying to destabilize the Andean states. Morales, Ortega and Obrador will no doubt be aided by military supplies from Chavez, including large shipments of Russian-origin Kalashnikov rifles now made under license in Venezuela.
To put it another way, Chavez wants to create an Arc of Crisis that would extend from Bolivia to Nicaragua to Mexico and then Cuba, the Caribbean, and Colombia. Chavez wants to set the entire region ablaze. He also wants to isolate and weaken Brazil, Chavez's major rival.
It is for this reason that Chavez is purchasing 25 advanced Russian fighter aircraft, Sukhoi Su-30s. These aircraft would provide Chavez with air superiority in the Caribbean, to the benefit of the FARC and other terrorist groups. It also explains why Chavez has no intention of permitting democratic governance in Cuba, regardless of how many transition plans for Cuba the US draws up.
Moreover, it appears that in the United Nations, Hugo Chavez will soon get a seat on the Human Rights Commission and on the UN Security Council, where Chavez can protect Iran's nuclear program. It is hard to imagine a larger humiliation that Chavez could inflict on Israel and the US.
Israel, at least, seems to get the message. Israel is withdrawing its ambassador from Caracas and will most likely break diplomatic relations with Venezuela. Perfect! The US should follow this exact same course and withdraw its ambassador immediately. The US should also suspend sales of weapons and lie detector kits, handcuffs and other equipment to Venezuela's police forces.
You see, President Bush, Chavez poses an unacceptable threat in Latin America, and Ahmadinejad an unacceptable threat in Iraq and the Middle East. If you do not understand this issue, please step down and make way for someone who does.
If the US takes a harder line on Chavez, he will be unable to retaliate by cutting off oil sales to the US. The stability of his regime depends upon this income, and he has large future expenses to cover such as the arms buildup and the economic support that will be needed for Bolivia as the Morales revolution falters. Moreover, it would take Chavez years to find other suppliers. Petroleumworld.com has undertaken some excellent assessments of the high degree of Venezuela's dependence on the US.
In short, President Bush, you must withdraw the US ambassador from Caracas, break diplomatic relations with Venezuela, support the independence of eastern Bolivia, and encourage Brazil to do the same. Moreover, you must call an emergency meeting of the OAS to discuss isolating Chavez and supporting the Bolivian resistance.
Congress can prepare a White Paper on the Chavez-Ahmadinejad-Castro connection, first suggested here some weeks ago. Congress can also hold hearings on the Cuba transition planning and Chavez's ability to disrupt a democratic transition.
Better late, and it is very late, for these actions, than never.
Scott Sullivan is former Country Director for Panama, International Security Affairs, Department of Defense.