President Bush is destabilizing the Middle East by appeasing Iran. Iran is responding to Bush's concessions by escalating. This is a very dangerous trend. Bush and Congress must find a middle way in dealing with Iran between the extremes of appeasement and war.
President Bush is making unprecedented concessions to Iran.
First, President Bush is throwing an economic lifeline to Iran. Bush authorized the World Bank to approve a mammoth $7 billion natural gas pipeline deal with India and Pakistan, two key US allies on the war on terrorism. This is the first World Bank mega-project approved for Iran. By itself, this World Bank announcement weakens UN’s economic sanctions and advances Iran's nuclear program. Bush is raising investor confidence in the Iranian economy, while casting doubt on US willingness to support nuclear-related sanctions.
Second, as this loan was approved President Bush replaced Paul Wolfowitz as World Bank president, from all accounts a NO vote on major projects for Iran, with State Department favorite Robert Zoellick, a sure YES vote on Iranian projects. In sum, the World Bank is now open to Iran.
Third, President Bush is throwing Iran a military and diplomatic lifeline by establishing the US-Iran Security Committee on Iraq, which held its first meeting this week. The US and Iran will use these meetings to coordinate joint security activities in Iraq. According to Stratfor, the US and Iranian lists of security objectives are virtually identical. The agreement is that Iran accepts the short-term presence of troops in Iraq. In return, the US agrees to turn over power to Iran in Iraq by excluding the Arab states from representation on the US-Iran security committee. In effect, the US and Iran have jointly declared war on the Iraqi Sunnis and their Arab state allies.
Fourth, the US is suppressing Muqtada al-Sadr and the Mahdi Army. Iran wants Sadr, who leads Iraqi Shia resistance to Iran, taken out of the picture as Iran takes power in Iraq. In other words, Iran wants the US to do Iran’s dirty work in Iraq, while Iranian forces remain out of harms way. Iran then wants US forces to leave Iraq, while Iran partitions Iraq and steals two-thirds of Iraq's oil. No one can accuse Iran's Nazis of thinking small!
Finally, the US is escalating against Syria by blaming Lebanon’s crisis entirely on Syria while ignoring Iran’s contribution. Syria is Iran’s major rival for influence in Iraq. Syria opposes Iran’s takeover of Iraq, which Syria fears will lead to Iraq’s partition, a step that would destabilize Syria and the region.
Far from expressing gratitude for these sweeping US concessions, Iran has decided to escalate against the US and its allies.
First, in a high profile act of defiance, Iran has accused three American citizens in Iran with espionage. This is hostage taking, as staged by President Ahmadinejad.
Second, Iran and Al-Qaeda are now destabilizing Lebanon and the Gaza strip. The idea is to distract the US from Iraq, weaken US influence in the region, and show that Iran can ratchet up pressure against the US at will, thus forcing the US to make even more concessions in Iraq.
Third, Iran is also cooperating with Al-Qaeda to strengthen Taliban in Afghanistan, which also distracts US attention and resources from Iraq.
In short, Iran is now calling the shots in Iraq and the Middle East, thanks to Bush’s concessions. Bush has lost control of relations with Iran. Bush and Congress must find a middle way between appeasement and war.
The middle way s called diplomacy, i.e. restoring the balance of power in the Middle East by deterring Iran. The US can best restore the balance of power by aiding the anti-Nazis, Sadr and Assad. These two might be bad guys, but they are far better than Nazi Ahmadinejad. We will see this, soon.
