War clouds are gathering in the Middle East, with Kirkuk as the detonator for war between Turkey and the US. Within Iraq, preparations are underway to change Kirkuk's political status via a referendum that would shift the regional balance of power against Turkey. The referendum would disintegrate Iraq's borders by bringing Kirkuk and 40 percent of Iraq's oil reserves under Kurdish/PKK jurisdiction. Turkey will never accept a Kirkuk referendum.

At the NSC, Lt Gen. Lute, Bush's top military appointee is now speaking about reinstating the draft. Moreover, in a compelling op-ed "Waiting for Petraeus," James Hoagland says even if the Petraeus plan brings success, it will not change the "enormous failure" that Iraq has become (12 August 07).

In other words, Bush is losing twice. First, Bush is pushing a dead on arrival counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq. Second, Bush is leading the US into a potentially catastrophic war against Turkey as part of a wrongheaded Iraq policy.

Bush's blunder is his unthinking support for the Kurds, as exemplified by Bush's backing for the Kirkuk referendum. In contrast to Bush, the Baker-Hamilton Report says the Kirkuk referendum must be postponed to avoid an Iraqi civil war and conflict between the US and Turkey.

Likewise, the respected and nonpartisan International Crisis Group says Kirkuk's referendum must be postponed. Most recently, Dennis Ross, former US ambassador to Israel says Kirkuk's referendum must be postponed.

If Kirkuk's referendum is not postponed, Congress will no longer be contemplating the Iraq problem. Congress will be contemplating a much larger crisis of US military confrontation with Turkey and the Arab states.

Why? Because the PKK terrorist group is at war with Turkey, and is being given a safe haven by Iraqi Kurdish authorities, who are under the protection of US forces in northern Iraq. If the US permits Kirkuk and its oil to pass into the hands of these same Kurdish authorities, the US is aligning itself with the PKK and declaring war on Turkey.

Even so distinguished US diplomat Morton Abramowitz, former US Ambassador to Turkey, was recently quoted that in order to regain Turkey's confidence in US policy President Bush should bomb PKK camps in northern Iraq.

Time is fast running out. Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki just completed a visit to Ankara thatn was empty of meaningful Iraqi commitments to curb the PKK.

Moreover, Kurdish regional authorities have ordered 6,000 Kurdish militia into Kirkuk's oil fields to "protect" (i.e., seize) the facilities. The Kirkuk dam is cracking under this pressure and is about to break.

What is the US to do? Again, Kirkuk's referendum must be postponed? President Bush, whose Baghdad team created Kirkuk's crisis by alienating Turkey, is unwilling to withhold knee jerk support for Kurds. Bush will not even invite to the White House newly elected Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, who is reportedly open to compromise with the Iraqi Kurds.

In other words, President Bush is prepared to sit tight until Turkish F-16s fire upon US F-16s in northern Iraq.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton can stop this mad rush to US-Turkish war with one phone call to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Speaker Pelosi would ask the Iraqi government to temporarily stand down from preparing Kirkuk's referendum until fast track hearings are held on the issue. Kurdish president Barzani, the PKK, the government of Turkey, James Baker, and the International Crisis Group could be brought in to testify. On the basis of these hearings both the House and Senate would vote to approve a Kirkuk referendum before it could move ahead.

Such congressional hearings would establish an official record on the basis of which congress would act. The Executive Branch has had its chance, and failed. Congress must step in.

Congress Must Avoid US-Turkey War

War clouds are gathering in the Middle East, with Kirkuk as the detonator for war between Turkey and the US. Within Iraq, preparations are underway to change Kirkuk's political status via a referendum that would shift the regional balance of power against Turkey. The referendum would disintegrate Iraq's borders by bringing Kirkuk and 40 percent of Iraq's oil reserves under Kurdish/PKK jurisdiction. Turkey will never accept a Kirkuk referendum.

At the NSC, Lt Gen. Lute, Bush's top military appointee is now speaking about reinstating the draft. Moreover, in a compelling op-ed "Waiting for Petraeus," James Hoagland says even if the Petraeus plan brings success, it will not change the "enormous failure" that Iraq has become (12 August 07).

In other words, Bush is losing twice. First, Bush is pushing a dead on arrival counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq. Second, Bush is leading the US into a potentially catastrophic war against Turkey as part of a wrongheaded Iraq policy.

Bush's blunder is his unthinking support for the Kurds, as exemplified by Bush's backing for the Kirkuk referendum. In contrast to Bush, the Baker-Hamilton Report says the Kirkuk referendum must be postponed to avoid an Iraqi civil war and conflict between the US and Turkey.

Likewise, the respected and nonpartisan International Crisis Group says Kirkuk's referendum must be postponed. Most recently, Dennis Ross, former US ambassador to Israel says Kirkuk's referendum must be postponed.

If Kirkuk's referendum is not postponed, Congress will no longer be contemplating the Iraq problem. Congress will be contemplating a much larger crisis of US military confrontation with Turkey and the Arab states.

Why? Because the PKK terrorist group is at war with Turkey, and is being given a safe haven by Iraqi Kurdish authorities, who are under the protection of US forces in northern Iraq. If the US permits Kirkuk and its oil to pass into the hands of these same Kurdish authorities, the US is aligning itself with the PKK and declaring war on Turkey.

Even so distinguished US diplomat Morton Abramowitz, former US Ambassador to Turkey, was recently quoted that in order to regain Turkey's confidence in US policy President Bush should bomb PKK camps in northern Iraq.

Time is fast running out. Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki just completed a visit to Ankara thatn was empty of meaningful Iraqi commitments to curb the PKK.

Moreover, Kurdish regional authorities have ordered 6,000 Kurdish militia into Kirkuk's oil fields to "protect" (i.e., seize) the facilities. The Kirkuk dam is cracking under this pressure and is about to break.

What is the US to do? Again, Kirkuk's referendum must be postponed? President Bush, whose Baghdad team created Kirkuk's crisis by alienating Turkey, is unwilling to withhold knee jerk support for Kurds. Bush will not even invite to the White House newly elected Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, who is reportedly open to compromise with the Iraqi Kurds.

In other words, President Bush is prepared to sit tight until Turkish F-16s fire upon US F-16s in northern Iraq.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton can stop this mad rush to US-Turkish war with one phone call to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Speaker Pelosi would ask the Iraqi government to temporarily stand down from preparing Kirkuk's referendum until fast track hearings are held on the issue. Kurdish president Barzani, the PKK, the government of Turkey, James Baker, and the International Crisis Group could be brought in to testify. On the basis of these hearings both the House and Senate would vote to approve a Kirkuk referendum before it could move ahead.

Such congressional hearings would establish an official record on the basis of which congress would act. The Executive Branch has had its chance, and failed. Congress must step in.