President Bush’s policies are creating large scale instability in the Middle East -- see yesterday’s New York Times editorial “Even Closer to the Brink.” Bush is creating Middle East instability by providing the PKK a safe haven in Northern Iraq; by alienating Turkey, a key NATO ally, via US support for the PKK; and by alienating Syria and Russia from participation in a US anti-PKK program.
President Bush’s major blunder was to establish an autonomous Kurdish government in northern Iraq under Massoud Barzani in 2003. Barzani was then and still is pro-PKK. Today, President Bush appears to be in disbelief as his pro-PKK Barzani government in northern Iraq refuses to rein in the PKK!
Have CIA and Defense failed to warn Bush about the numerous reports of US-PKK collaboration since 2003? As early as 21 October 2003 the Turkish Undersecretary for National Intelligence Organization Sonmez Koksal warned Bush via the Turkish daily press that the PKK was confronting US policies in the region and that US faced a showdown with the PKK.
How did Bush respond to this Turkish warning about the PKK? Bush responded by strengthening US ties with Barzani and the PKK. President Bush is again today accommodating the PKK and Barzani while alienating Turkey. Bush must strengthen his anti-PKK initiatives – a classic Bush example of policy that is far too little, far too late -- with the following US actions.
First, Bush should endorse all of Turkey’s anti-PKK initiatives in northern Iraq, including US approval of Turkish forces in Iraq.
Second, Bush should make good use of Syria’s recent opposition to the PKK and Syria’s support for Turkey. Syria is not the enemy. The PKK is the enemy. To be blunt, a US anti-PKK strategy in the region that excludes Syria is useless, as Turkey knows.
Third, while including Syria, the US must exclude Iran from the anti-PKK initiative. Unlike Syria, Iran refuses to endorse Turkey’s anti-PKK measures. Instead, in lockstep with Bush, Iran supports Massoud Barzani, Kurdish president, and Jalal Talabani, the Iraqi president, who are both pro-PKK.
Fourth, in addition to US re-engagement with Turkey and Syria, Bush must re-engage with Russia on a joint US-Russian-Turkish anti-PKK initiative. Russia’s KGB first established and armed the Kurdish extremists under Barzani during the Cold War. Russia now faces responsibility for addressing the PKK/Barzani problem.
Fifth, President Bush should reject advice for passing the buck to Turkey to address the PKK problem. Bush should also reject advice for a temporary solution to the PKK crisis that would accept a continuing PKK presence in northern Iraq. Bush must recognize that he has creating today's PKK crisis by creating the new state of Iraqi Kurdistan in 2003; by allowing the PKK to become entrenched in Iraqi Kurdistan; and by allowing the PKK to use Iraqi Kurdistan to mount armed raids into Turkey. Along with President Putin, President Bush now bears primary responsibility, not PM Erdogan and Turkey, for suppressing the PKK.