President Bush has three options for dealing with the PKK crisis. The first US option is to take no action to restrain the PKK while hoping that Turkey will not attack the PKK. This is current US policy. The second option is to confront Turkey with US forces to protect the PKK in the event of a Turkish attack, as long advocated by Bill Clinton. The third option,. by far the superior alternative, is for the US to invite Turkey as a partner so as to eject the PKK from Iraq.
The US option of not restraining the PKK while hoping Turkey will not attack northern Iraq is unrealistic. The Erdogan government is convinced that the PKK presents an intolerable threat to Turkey and to other states in the region. In Erdogans view, the PKK threatens Iraq, Turkey, and Syria at a minimum because of the PKKs demand for territory from all three to a establish a new state of Greater Kurdistan.
Moreover, just like Turkey, the US itself cannot accept the PKK agenda for Iraq. if the PKK succeeds in partitioning Iraq, Iran will take Basra and southern Iraq, along with most of the Iraqi oil reserves. US policy in Iraq would collapse. Option one is out.
The US's second option is to confront Turkey with US forces in the event of a Turkish attack on the PKK. A US military confrontation with Turkey over the PKK is a bad idea for three reasons. First, the Turkish military is well equipped and highly motivated. A US war with Turkey would not be a cakewalk. Second, Iran would be the big winner from a US-Turkish conflict. Third, because Iran would be the big winner, President Bush would be forced to leave office. Option two is out.
Option three is for the US to invite Turkey as a partner so as to eject the PKK from Iraq. In sum, Turkey would take over from Iran as the US's favored US partner in Iraq. Option three contains the following initiatives.
First, if military action against the PKK Is warranted, both the US and Turkey will participate. In a perfect world, the US alone should undertake military action against the PKK. Morton Abramowitz, former US ambassador to Turkey, has called for unilateral US military action against the PKK.
Second, the US and Turkey shall voice strong support for preserving Iraq'ss territorial integrity. This would entail joint Turkish and US warnings to Iran Iran, if necessary. The US and Turkey shall ask Iran to drop cooperation the PKK to partition Iraq into Kurdish and Shiite states.
Third, the US and Turkey shall establish a small peacekeeping contingent in Kirkuk and Basra. The purpose of this joint peacekeeping operation would be to deter Kurdish efforts to take Kirkuk and Iranian efforts to take Basra.
Fourth, once the Iraqi status of Kirkuk is clarified, Turkey should reach out to support the Kurdish Regional Government, especially the authority of President Barzani.
Fifth, on a separate track, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan shall be encouraged to accelerate comprehensive reforms for Turkish-Kurdish relations in Turkey.
Sixth, once the Iraqi status of Basra is clarified, the US and Turkey shall encourage Iran to withdraw the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and the Quds force from Iraq. To be specific, Iran shall recall from Iraq its current ambassador, who is a high ranking officer in the Quds force.
Seventh, the US and Turkey will gain the support of NATO as well as the Shanghhai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Central Asia, chaired by Russia, in support of these anti-PKK and anti-Iran initiatives.
Finally, Turkey will engage Syria and the Arab states as partners against the PKK and Iran. Such a coalition of the US, Turkey, Russia, China, Syria and the Arab states would easily prevail over the PKK and Iran.