Two questions are important in Iraq. Who are the good guys in Iraq? How do we know without ambiguity that the good guys are winning in Iraq?

These are easy questions. The good guys are those who want to defeat the PKK; protect Iraq as an independent state; and strengthen Iraq as a deterrent to Iran. The good guys are Turkey, Syria and the Arab states, i.e., the Iraqi Unionists.

The bad guys, in contrast, want to break up Iraq into three separate states, Kurdish, Shiite, and Sunni. The bad guys are the PKK, Kurdish president Barzani, and Iran, i.e., the Iraqi confederates.

In his meeting with Turlish president Erdogan yesterday, President Bush failed to lay out a US-Turkish Road Map to prevent Iraqi partition by the PKK, as requested by Erdogan. Bush’s failure suggests he is staying true to the pro-PKK policy that has guided his administration from the beginning. In other words, given yesterday’s Bush-Erdogan meeting, President Bush is still backing the bad guys.

How will we know when the good guys/Unionists in Iraq are winning?

This question is also easy. We will know the good guys are winning in Iraq when it is clear that Kirkuk and its oil will remain Iraqi, not transferred to Barzani and the PKK. Likewise, the good guys are winning in Iraq if Basra and its oil remain Iraqi and are not transferred to Iran.

Iraqi loss of Kirkuk and Basra would terminate Iraqi statehood because 90 per cent of Iraq’s national income would be diverted to Kurds and Iranians.

Moreover, if Iraq first loses Kirkuk to Kurds, Iraq would soon lose Basra to Iran. To put it another way, a partial division of Iraq is not sustainable because a loss of either Kirkuk or Basra would cripple the Baghdad government. Iraq will either protect both Kirkuk and Basra, or Iraq will lose both.

Baghdad’s loss of Kirkuk and Basra would sink US military policy for Iraq. Iraqi Sunnis in Anbar Province would plunge again into full scale rebellion (the Iraqi Sunnis would have no oil; virtually all of Iraqi proven oil reserves are in Kirkuk and Basra). Al-Qaeda would return in force to Anbar Province. Meanwhile, the Kurds would annex Kirkuk and Northern Iraq. Iran would annex Basra and Southern Iraq. President Bush’s Operation Surge would stall, for good.

In short, by spurning Turkish PM Erdogan’s appeal for a road map to defeat the PKK in Iraq, Bush took a giant and perhaps decisive step towards defeating Operation Surge in Iraq. Has anyone briefed Bush yet on this bad news?