In order to develop an effective anti-PKK strategy, Turkey must step forward as the new security manager of the Middle East. This is not because Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan seeks a regional leadership role. Indeed, PM Erdogan is most likely furious at the destraction that Iraq and its US-manufactured PKK problems have become during his first weeks in office.
Turkey does not want the regional leadership burden but must take it up in any case, for three reasons.
First, the US has abandoned its role as a leader against international terrorism by blunders in Iraq. President Bush’s biggest blunder was to favor Barzani, the PKK, and Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as US partners in Iraq. The PKK and Revolutionary Guards quickly decided to partition Iraq, a policy that will produce disaster for Turkey, Iraq and the entire Middle East.
The US remains committed to working with Barzani, the PKK and the IRGC partners in Iraq, as shown by the US decision today to release nine of the 20 IRGC personnel in US custody, as a sign of US good will towards Iran (see Washington Post today). Moreover, Bush's unwillingness to produce a US-Turkish road map for defeating the PKK is a sign that Bush remains committed to appeasing the PKK.
Second, from a parochial standpoint, Turkey can resolve the PKK crisis only on the basis of a regional strategy. The PKK poses a significant threat not only to Turkey but to Iraq and Syria as well. Any Turkish solution for the PKK problem must have the full cooperation of Iraq and Syria at a minimum.
Third, if Turkey does not take a regional leadership role, Iran will attempt to fill the gap, Whereas Iran would fail as a regional security leader, Turkey would almost certainly succeed.
Iran is now pushing hard to take over the US role as security manager of the Middle East. Iran is attempting to dominate Arab policy toward Iraq by establishing a regional coordinating committee on Iraq that would exclude Turkey but include Saudi Arabia and Syria. Iran’s proposal on Iraq is an insult to PM Erdogan. Turkey must step in to derail this Iranian power play over Iraq that would benefit the PKK.
Moreover, Iran is too sectarian and lacks the requisite allies to guide the Middle East. An Iranian-dominated Middle East would breed unrest in Arab states and alienate foreign investors.
In contrast, Turkey has a broad democratic and free market vision for the Middle East. Even more important, and unlike Iran, Turkey is friendly with all the Middle East players including Israel. Moreover, Turkey can attract support for an anti-PKK strategy from NATO and from the Russian-Chinese Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Central Asia. Iran, on the other hand, has as true allies only Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, and Kim Jong-il, leaders who have no influence in the Middle East.
Finally, The good news for PM Erdogan is that a Turkish-driven regional strategy against the PKK carries a high probability of success. Syria and Azerbaijan have already given full endorsement to Turkey’s anti-PKK measures in Iraq. From this beginning Turkey can bring the SCO and then NATO on board. Who knows -- Turkey could even capture US support!