Turkish General Yasar Buyukanit has just predicted a large scale Turkish attack on the PKK jn northern Iraq. To quote GEN Buyukanit, "A small operation cannot be carried out." His comments signal defeat for the US plan to convince Turkey to restrict the attack to a few air strikes against PKK camps, after which Turkey would withdraw its 100,000 troops from the border with northern Iraq.

This US plan was designed to defeat and humiliate Turkey. Bushs's plan would allow the PKK to claim victory over Turkey. Moreover, the PKK was increasing Turkish humiliation by a political campaign to break Turkey into several small states. The Kurdish party in Turkey demanded this week that the Kurds be provided their own state in Turkey, as in northern Iraq. The Turkish-Kurdish civil war -- instigated by US policy in Iraq -- was on the horizon

However, the Turkish military know by heart Napoleon's maxim -- "You can do anything with bayonets but sit on them!" Here is my prediction. November 15 is the day on which the Kirkuk referendum was to be held (the informal Iraqi decision is to postpone the referendum). Instead, November 15 will go down in history as the date when the Turkish Army enters northern Iraq in large numbers and occupies Kirkuk!

If President Bush dislikes this outcome, he still has time to prevent a Turkish attack. First, Bush should inform Barzani that the PKK has 72 hours to withdraw from Iraq. If the PKK does not withdraw from Iraq, US forces will chase them out. Second, President Bush should replace GEN. Petraeus, who is pro-Kurdish. How can Bush ask Turkey to share military intelligence with the US when it could go to Barzani and the PKK? Third, President Bush should announce that he will free no more Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) from US military custody until he is satisfied the IRGC is not working with Kurdish forces against US interests in Iraq.

Finally, Bush should put Iran on notice that he anticipates Iranian support for these decisions. If Iran disagrees and would like to protect a PKK presence in Iraq, he would like to know the reasons why.