The final showdown in Iraq will occur in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul between two pro-US groups, the Iraqi Sunnis and the Iraqi Kurds. The Sunni-Kurdish fight will be over Mosul’s oil reserves. Moreover, Whoever controls Mosul -- Iraq’s third largest city after Baghdad and Basra -- will control Kirkuk’s oil along with most of northern Iraq. For this reason, Turkey must take Mosul to deter the Kurds and to boost Iraqi Sunni power as a counterweight to Barzani and his PKK allies.

Iraq has three major oil centers. Basra is first; Kirkuk is second; and Mosul is third. Thanks to President Bush, Iran is taking Basra, while Kurdish president Barzani and the PKK are taking Kirkuk. Who will take Mosul and its oil? The fight for Mosul is between Iraqi Sunnis and Kurds, given the small number of Shiites in Mosul. Barzani intends drive the Sunnis from Mosul as well as Kirkuk.In terms of Iraq as a whole, Baghdad and other major cities are being partitioned by Barzani and the Iranians, while the Sunnis -- once dominant in Iraq -- are left with nothing.

In short, the Iraqi Sunnis face an economic blow in losing Mosul, which is the last major oil producing region the Sunnis can bring under their control. Moreover, the Sunni loss of Mosul to Barzani and the Kurds would represent a huge political blow. The Iraqi Sunnis constitute 60% of the population of Ninevah province, which is home to Mosul. The Sunnis should be able to dominate Mosul.

The Sunnis lost Mosul to the Kurds in the 2002 Ninevah provincial elections, which the Sunnis boycotted. The Kurds took control of Ninevah province, although the Kurds constitute only 40 percent of Ninevah's population. Thanks to this Kurdish victory, the Kurds now control two thirds of the seats in Ninevah's provincial council.In the same way as the Sunnis, Barzani cannot afford to lose Mosul. If Barzani fails to take Mosul, the Sunnis would consolidate and would constitute a significant military threat to Kirkuk – Barzani’s choice as the capital of an independent Kurdistan. In short, Barzani must pre-empt this potential Sunni/Mosul republic or he can kiss an independent Kurdistan goodbye.

Furthermore, Barzani will never be in a stronger position to take Mosul, given Kurdish political dominance of Ninevah province. For Barzani, the timing is now or never for Kurdish control of Mosul.

Finally, Turkey wants to take Mosul. Turkey could greatly boost stability in northern Iraq by taking Mosul. Turkey would thereby prevent a Sunni-Kurdish conflict over Mosul. Turkey would also deter Kurdish/PKK expansion into Kirkuk, northern Iraq, and Turkey itself. In short, Turkey must take Mosul.