In my last article I made a prediction. I predicted that the referendum was a forgone conclusion and that Venezuela would be permanently under the rule of Hugo Chavez. I was wrong in that prediction. I don't believe that I am wrong in my view of Chavez. Since winning the presidency in 1998 he has systematically moved the country closer and closer to dictatorship and socialism, and if he had won yesterdays vote it just would have made it official. Chavez, and his minions, lost the vote 51% against and 49% for. What is disturbing is that after he created a rubber stamp parliment, shut down the free press, turned the judiciary into puppets, and has brought ruin to Venezuela's economy(only high oil prices keep it afloat) he was still able to get 49% of the vote on his side.

It seems unlikely that Chavez has seen the Democratic light and will stop his revolution. Perhaps the opposition finally rallied the people enough to stop a fomral declaration of dictatorship, or the people of the country are finally tired of their blowhard leader.

It's difficult to say what this means. Chavez might go on ahead anyway, after all his 1992 coup attempt shows how much respect he really has for democracy and the rule of law. It makes one ask how he lost the vote. Did the presence of foreign observers make a difference? Or did he consider the vote irrelevant?

One can hope that this victory, however small, and very likely temporary, will embolden the opposition to Chavez. The eyes of the world on Chavez might have caused him to back down, his opponents need to press their advantage and see how democratic he really is. Will they be able to win seats in the next parlimentary elections? Will he honor the constitution and step aside in 2012, or will he find someway to keep himself in power?

A narrow loss will want to make Chavez take another stab at a vote. He has made his intentions clear throughout his rule. "Socialism fatherland or death!" is the motto of the regime, not exactly the most democratic sounding of slogans. I guess "long live death" sounded too much like Franco's regime and not enough like Castro's.

Chavez is no friend to the people of Venezuela, and no friend to the United States. People who support freedom and democracy can only hope that this loss is the beginning of the end for Hugo and his Chavistas, but I'm not going to predict it.