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Chavez and Ahmadinejad are Going Down
December 06, 2007 12:00 PM EST

The bad news is that President Bush supports the Ahmadinejad-Chavez-Morales Nazi Axis and has been a supporter since 2004 (see Iran-watch.com). Bush is worried by the swift collapse of Evo Morales in Bolivia and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Bush fears the implications for the political survival of Ahmadinejad in Iran. Bush is making a last minute effort to preserve Ahmadinejad by strengthening Iran’s nuclear program.

According to recent STRATFOR assessments, Bush pepared the NIE on Iranian nukes as a means of boosting Ahmadinemjad and opening the way to a US-Iran alliance in Iraq and the Middle East that would be directed against Russia.

The good news is that Bush is doing too little, too late to preserve Ahmadinejad, who is going over the side along with Morales and Chavez. To be specific: Evo Morales is already politically dead, while Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are dead men walking.

To put it another way -- Morales will drag down Chavez, who in turn will drag down Ahmadinejad. Chavez has no chance of surviving Morales’s collapse just as Ahmadinejad has no chance of surviving Chavez’s collapse. US policy will soon reflect this new reality, one that is favorable for US interests.

How soon can we expect to see a major victory? We can expect a major victory on 14 December, the date on which Evo Morales will be forced by law to abandon his plan for Bolivia’s new constitution. Morales will become the target of Bolivia’s ultra-left wing extremists. As a result, Bolivia will quickly descend into anarchy. Morales – despite extensive US support – will be history. For the outlook on Morales, see the MiamiHerald.com “Political Street Fight Continues in Bolivia,” 4 December 2007.

As for Hugo Chavez, this South American Mussolini already took a huge hit this week with the defeat of his own proposals for constitutional reform (see petroleumworld.com). Chavez’s only hope for spreading his revolution in South America was in Bolivia. As his hopes for Bolivia go up in smoke, so do his prospects in Venezuela.

Moreover, Morales is likely to appeal to Chavez for military support on the way down (Chavez is already providing Morales with limited military support). Chavez is quite capable of increasing such support, a decision that will mark the end of his regime in Venezuela. On the other hand, Chavez is finished with his own constituency if he abandons Morales and Bolivia.

Again, to summarize, Morales is already gone, and Chavez and Ahmadinejad are on the way out. Congratulations to Bolivia and Venezuela!




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