It is clear from Brazilian President Lula da Silva’s meetings with Evo Morales that Argentina-- not Brazil --- will the big winner from the break-up of Bolivia.
To begin, Evo Morales has destroyed the Bolivian state with his efforts to impose a new Chavista constitution on eastern Bolivia. The eastern Bolivian authorities have pushed back against Morales with daring and resolve. Eastern Bolivia has pushed back by proclaiming autonomy from Bolivia and its laws, reducing by two-thirds the tax revenues paid to Bolivia from natural gas exports, and establishing an eastern Bolivia police force.The only ray of sunlight for Evo Morales came from his meeting early this week with Brazil’s president Lula da Silva. Most observers saw the Morales-da Silva meeting as a big win for Morales because Brazil offered $1 billion in economic assistance to Morales, primarily in funding for Bolivia-Brazil energy cooperation.Morales, however, should take heed of President da Silva’s warning to Morales not to suppress eastern Bolivia. “Patience, patience, and patience” is the advice that Lula da Silva is offering Morales in his dealings with Bolivia’s opposition.
Unfortunately for Morales, he is out of time with the opposition. Time is not on Morales’s side as the opposition builds support in eastern Bolivia and takes step after step in building the foundations of a separate state. In other words, Evo Morales must strike hard and fast at Bolivia’s opposition. To borrow from Winston Churchill’s 1918 advice for dealing with the threat of the newly established Bolshevik regime, “We (that is the UK and the US) must strangle this baby in its crib.”
Even if Evo Morales can assume Brazil’s support for a preemptive military strike against eastern Bolivia, Morales is ignoring the true spoiler to his plans – Argentina. Only two states can lay claim to eastern Bolivia and its vast reserves of natural gas -- Brazil and Argentina. Brazil is prepared to give Morales some space in resolving the eastern Bolivia crisis, for three reasons. First, President da Silva values his close relations with President Bush and wants to avoid actions that would met with US disfavor, such as undermining Morales by supporting autonomy for eastern Bolivia. Second, President da Silva views Brazil as a leader on the Latin America stage and the global stage. Lula does not want to become involved in a messy conflict with Evo Morales in a way that would detract from Brazil’s leadership image. Third, Brazil is not in desperate need of eastern Bolivia’s enormous natural gas reserves. Brazil has made significant progress toward energy self sufficiency in recent years via energy conservation and the development of ethanol. Moreover, Brazil has good news on the energy front with the discovery of large offshore oil reserves. In a word, Brazil can do without eastern Bolivia’s natural gas.
Argentina, on the other hand, is in an entirely different situation than Brazil. Argentina is under intense pressure to reach out to assert its claim to eastern Bolivia. Unlike Brazil, Argentina has no special relationship with the US to protect and will disregard US warnings to stay out of eastern Bolivia. Unlike Brazil, Argentina has no pretensions to a global leadership role and will not pursue a policy of restraint towards eastern Bolivia to advance a global leadership agenda. Unlike Bazil, Argentina is in desperate need of eastern Bolivia’s gas reserves. Indeed, energy shortages in Argentina are already weakening the economy. Argentina cannot afford to lose access to eastern Bolivi’s natural gas and must take steps to protect supplies from eastern Bolivia as a matter of Argentine national security.
Finally, unlike Brazil, Argentina will come under pressure from the Latin American states to intervene in eastern Bolivia. The Latin American states would prefer Argentine troops to Brazilian troops in eastern By protecting eastern Bolivia Argentina would pre-empt Brazil and restrain Brazil’s reputation as Latin America’s superpower.Moreover, the Latin American states are concerned about the rise of the Ahmadinejad-Chavez-Morales axis. In particular, the Latin American states worry that Iran intends to use Venezuela and Bolivia as staging areas for terrorism in Latin America. Whereas Brazil has not voiced such fears, Argentina is now leading the fight – via Argentine and Interpol investigations into the role of former Iranian president Rafsanjani’s in Hezbollah bombings in Buenos Aires in 1995 -- to hold Iran accountable for its terrorism in the region.
In sum, the Latin American states should encourage Argentina to step forward as the protector of eastern Bolivia. Brazil, Chile, Peru and Paraguay cannot or will not intervene. Argentina will be the big winner in the Bolivia crisis, not Brazil.