With the nomination of John McCain an inevitability many conservatives are in a bind about what they should do. Some contemplate staying home and boycotting the election, some think they should vote for a third party candidate while others think that they should hold their nose and vote for McCain. No matter what happens in the Presidential race there is still a reason for conservatives to get involved in the race.
As Michelle Malkin, and Rush Limbaugh(along with others) have pointed out there are Governors, Senators, Congressmen and local officials to elect. Conservatives should get out there and make sure that there are conservatives in Congress, and conservatives in the statehouses. That can't be accomplished if conservatives stay home in November.
Would we want to give Harry Reid a bigger majority in the Senate? A majority so big that the GOP minority can't block his, and Nancy Pelosi's, agenda. There are plenty of Senate races this year and conservatives need to get out there and fight for the principles that they believe in and elect politicians who believe in them as well.
Republicans have 16 incumbents and 5 open seats being vacated by GOP Senators. It won't do the conservative movement any good to boycott the entire election.
In Maine Susan Collins, no conservative, is running for reelection. Her opponent will most likely be Congressman Tom Allen. Maine is a moderate/center left state, and Collins is a moderate/ center left Republican. She should win reelection. Maine isn't a state where conservatives have much influence and Collins or Snowe is probably the best the GOP can do.
In New Hampshire first term Senator John Sunnunu is running for reelection, and most likely will be facing his 2002 opponent Jeanne Sheehen, a former Governor. Sunnunu is in a state the John Kerry narrowly won in 2004, but New Hampshire is still more conservative than the rest of New England. Sunnunu is in a close race but is usually a strong finisher. Sunnunu should win unless the GOP is just having a terrible night.
In Kentucky minority leader Mitch McConnell is running for reelection. The Democrats would like nothing better to defeat him, but Kentucky is a conservative state and Senator McConnell hasn't drawn a strong opponent. This should be a safe seat for the GOP.
In Virginia Senator Warner is retiring. The race is shaping up to be former Governors Gilmore(R) and Warner(D). Virginia has been trending more Democrat over the years, especially in the northern part of the state. Still, it being a presidential election year (and given the fact that Virginia hasn't voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate since 1964) it should favor the GOP to hold onto its seat.
In North Carolina Elizabeth Dole is running for reelection. As yet she hasn't drawn a serious opponent and North Carolina is a conservative state. This should be a hold for the Republicans.
In South Carolina Lindsay Graham is running for reelection. This is a very Republican state and he should win if he gets through the primary, where he has four opponents. He's a staunch ally of Senator McCain, a member of the gang of 14, a supporter of amnesty, and conservatives would love nothing better than to defeat him. It's unlikely that this seat goes to the Democrats
In Georgia Saxby Chambliss is running for reelection for the first time. It would take a miracle for the Democrats to take this seat.
In Alabama Jeff Sessions will crush whatever sacrifical lamb is nominated to run against him.
In Mississippi there are two Senate races. Senator Thad Cochran is running for reelection and should be a safe win. The other race should be more competitive. With Trent Lott's resignation Roger Wicker, who was appointed to the seat, is running to serve out the rest of the term. His likely opponent is former governor Ronnie Musgrove. With low name recognition and a powerful opponent he could be more vulnerable. Still Mississippi is very Republican and it would be quite an upset for the GOP to lose this seat.
In Minnesota Norm Coleman is running for reelection in what could be a very competitive race. Coleman represents a moderate/liberal state and might end up running against Al Franken. This is a state that elected Jesse "the body" Ventura to be it's governor. It's not out of the question that it could elect a wannabe comedian Senator. This race could go either way.
In Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel is retiring, much to the delight of conservatives. Nebraska is a Republican state, and the GOP nominee is likely to be former Governor Mike Johanns. If the GOP loses this seat it's going to be a long election night.
In Kansas Pat Roberts is a safe reelection.
In Oklahoma Senator Inhofe should cruise to an easy win.
If there is a Senator conservatives can love it's John Cornyn. A solid conservative in every way, he's up for reelection. Still this is Texas we're talking about, and that means he should win reelection easily.
In New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici is retiring. Make no mistake, this race will be very competitive. In 2000 and 2004 New Mexico was won by the narrowest of Margins. The Democratic nominee is going to be Tom Udall, with the GOP nominee being Congresswoman Heather Wilson or Congressman Steve Pearce. This race is too close to call.
In Colorado Wayne Allard, a solid conservative, is keeping his pledge on term limits and opening this race. Colorado has been drifting left in recent years and this means that the Democrats have a very real chance to pick up a seat. The Democrat nominee is likely to be Congressmen Mark Udall, with Congressman Bob Schaffer being his opponent in the general election. This race leans Democrats but could go either way.
In Wyoming Senator Barrasso needs to win a special election to serve out the rest of the late Senator Craig Thomas's term. This is Wyoming we're talking about. Unless governor Dave Frudenthal gets in the race this one will be an easy win for the GOP.
In Idaho disgraced Senator Larry Craig is retiring. He wouldn't have a chance to win another term and he knows it. Even without an incumbent there is little chance of a Democrat winning this race. The nine registered Democrats would have to convince the rest of the people to vote their way.
In Oregon Senator Gordon Smith is up for reelection and might be the most vulnerable incumbent. He hasn't drawn a serious opponent yet, but it's going to be close. If the GOP is having a bad night look for the Senator to become unemployed, if McCain does well in Oregon he might be able to ride his coattails back to D.C. Either way it's too close to call.
In Alaska Senator Ted Stevens, the king of pork, is running for yet another term. While no friend of conservatives, he's wildly popular in Alaska and will coast to another term.
Vulnerable Democrats:
Most Democrats are running in safe states, and with fewer seats to defend they can focus their resources on defending the vulnerable ones.
In Louisiana Mary Landrieu is seeking a third term. Her opponent in State Treasurer John Kennedy, she's probably the most vulnerable Democrat. The state seemed to turn GOP after Katrina, they elected Bobby Jidal Governor, and they might finish out the year electing another Republican Senator. This will probably be the one pickup the Republicans get from the Democrats.
In South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson, who won reelection by 512 votes in 2002, is up again. The health problems he suffered over the last year might give him a sympathy vote, but if he draws a strong GOP candidate he might be vulnerable. After all it's not as if there is going to be a strong Democrat candidate to carry the state in the Presidential election. This race could be interesting.
