The unprovoked invasion of southern Kurdistan by Turkish troops invites a response from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The underlying motivation for the invasion lies in Kirkuk, not in the Qandil Mountains. Perhaps, this is where the focus of the response should be by the KRG. There is a danger of brinksmanship here and a real risk that actions could easily create a scenario that no one can predict now. In this context, the peshmerga and the political parties and people of Kurdistan need to define their priorities and map out the measures that provide an opportunity for establishing Kurdish unity. It needs to be said that the KRG has acted in good faith to date in the postponing of the referendum, but that the invasion creates a whole new set of circumstances in which Kurdish democratic and national rights in Kirkuk become much more vulnerable to Turkish military action.
It becomes difficult to maintain stability when instability is an inherent consequence of the Turkish invasion. It becomes difficult to work towards a non-violent resolution of differences between the Kurdish nation and the Turkish government when armed force is the only solution presented. It is difficult to stop the escalation of Turkish military interventions when the US government repeatedly makes concessions and empowers the Turkish military to increase its policy of attacks on the Kurdish people. Has the US shown any impulse to encourage Turkey to recognize the KRG? Has the US government taken any steps to internationalize the referendum process in Kirkuk? The EU statement in regards to the invasion certainly understated the current impact of the invasion on the region. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solano reportedly stated: “We understand the concerns of Turkey…We think that this action in Iraq is not the best response. The territorial integrity of Iraq is for us very, very important.”
“Measured invasions” rarely create opportunities for reconciliation. They do provide increasing justifications for escalations. The current deployments of Turkish troops on the border are not there for symbolic purposes. International pressure needs to be increased to force Turkey to withdraw its massive troop presence in that region as a first step in demonstrating their willingness not to interfere in the internal affairs of the Kurdish Autonomous Region. There can be no assumptions made here regarding future Turkish intentions in this region. The blank check has already been given by the Turkish Parliament to the military. This is an international crisis and not simply an internal Turkish affair. Kirkuk is not a part of Turkey.
As news begins to leak out of the region the situation will increasingly become worse and response attacks on Turkish troops or confrontations between the peshmerga and Turkish troops will begin to undermine the stability of the region. The Turkish government has repeatedly stated that it alone has the authority to make decisions regarding the use of its military and that it is prepared to take any and all measures to accomplish its objectives. Invading now, before the spring thaw even arrives, indicates that there is no intention on the part of the Turkish government to restrict its activities under international law. The invasion is a provocation and a deliberate attempt to promote conflict and confrontation.
President Barzani of the KRG has made a statement regarding both Kirkuk and the Turkish activities. “We respect the Turkish sovereignty and security and we have no problem with Turkey, but sometimes Turkey wants to export its internal crisis to others," said Barzani who added, "We wish that the tension will not escalate more than what has already happened. We will work with all our effort to overcome the problems. You cannot solve this problem with military action, only peacefully.” In regards to Kirkuk, President Barzani has stated unequivocally: "Kirkuk is an Iraqi city with a Kurdish identity and must go back to the region of Kurdistan in accordance with the constitution."
Even as events escalate, President Barzani has gone to the region to assess the activities for himself. A spokesman for the Kurdistan Democratic Party stated: "News reports alleging that a clash erupted between Turkish forces and the pesmerghe, on Thursday near Dohuk are not true. There was just a brief tense moment but the problem was settled shortly," Safin Dizayi said. Dizayi added that pesmerghe was absolutely ordered not to clash with Turkish forces but to protect Iraq's Kurdish citizens.
At the same time Turkish media has presented a description that contradicts this. Fouad Hussein, a spokesman for the Kurdish administration, said Kurdish peshmerga forces had been put on alert. He said Iraqi Kurdish forces also had tightened security around bases housing Turkish military monitors operating in northern Iraq with permission from local authorities under a 1996 agreement. "The government of Kurdistan ordered the peshmerga forces to be on alert in fear of any Turkish incursion on Iraqi territory," he was quoted as saying by The Associated Press, claiming that Turkish military monitors had tried to leave their bases in violation of the accord. "Those troops tried to move out, but the peshmerga forces forced them to return to their camps within half an hour," he said. Turkish media reports said on Friday that a total of 1,200 Turkish monitors in four camps in Iraq were helping to coordinate the ground offensive. Hussein said on Thursday that there were clashes between the peshmerga forces and the Turkish troops but his claims were immediately denied by the Turkish military.”
Reports such as these add fuel to the fire but they are the inevitable product of the Turkish invasion. Contradictory stories incite popular opinion against the Turkish invasion and are exactly the reason President Barzani has gone to the area himself to get clarification. Actions taken in the heat of war need to be based on a sound evaluation of what is happening on the ground. Political leadership that defends the Kurdish nation needs to have an accurate grasp of the true intentions of all military actions taken against their territory. As spring arrives, the ice begins to thin and walking out on the lake presents an increased risk. Turkish actions are precipitating a very dangerous set of circumstances for the immediate future until and unless it establishes the means of addressing its own internal conflicts without intervening in the affairs of other nations.