Russia is Big Winner in IraqRussia, not Iran or the US, will be the big winner in Iraq and the Middle East. Russia's good fortune is attributable to Iraqi PM Maliki's decision to choose Serbia as Iraq's major arms supplier while ignoring the U.S. See the NYTimes, 'Secret Iraq Deal, Kept from U.S., Shows flaws in Arms Orders,' 13 April 2008.

When Iraq aligns with Serbia, Iraq aligns with Russia. This is because many Serbian defense companies have Russian companies as partners. Furthermore, Serbia and Russia are strategic allies. Earlier this year Russia immediately supported Serbia when the US proposed separating Kosovo province from Serbia. Russia and Serbia will extend their strategic partnership from the Balkans to Iraq and the Middle East.

Iraq's move in favor of Serbia and Russia creates a huge crisis for President Bush and Senator John McCain on Iraq policy.

First, Congressional support for Iraq will evaporate. Congress will not appropriate funds for Iraqi purchases of Serbian weapons supported by hundreds of Serbian and Russian military advisors.

Second, Bush's only hope for an early exit from Iraq, by handing over power to Iran, will go up in smoke. Iran wants no part of the Maliki government if Iraq is in partnership with Serbia and Russia. Without an early exit strategy in Iraq, President Bush's Republican Party will be wiped out in the November elections.

Third, Serbia and Russia are making Bush look like a fool. One of the primary reasons Bush went into Iraq was to finish Russia as a major player in Middle East. Not only is Russia back in the Middle East game, despite Bush's hostility, Russia is in the center of the action. Russia will control Iraq's oil, not the US, Iran, and the Kurds as under President Bush's plan.

What is bad news for Bush may be good news for US interests in the Middle East. Due to the incompetence of Bush's neo-conservative political advisors, who want to partition Iraq, Bush is in no position to bring reconciliation to Iraq. Even the Kurds, who have benefited most from US occupation, distrust US policy and have no loyalty to the US.

In contrast, Russia is in good standing with Iraq's Kurds and Iraq's Sunni population by having worked with them in past years. Moreover, Russia's presence in Iraq meets the needs of most Iraqis by protecting Iraq from Kurdish and Iranian territorial demands. The Kurds want to annex the Iraqi city of Kirkuk and its oil, while Iran wants to annex the Iraqi city of Basra and its oil. In short, Russia is Iraq's main ally against the Kurds and Iranians.

Finally, a Russian presence in Iraq would preserve Iraq's traditional alignment with the Arab states, a policy that is supported by the vast majority of Iraqis, including most Iraqi Shi'ites. Russia will still have to earn the trust of Iraq's Shi'ites, but this task should be within reach.

In conclusion, the very good news is that Russia may be better prepared than the US and its Iranian and Kurdish partners to bring stability to Iraq. If this is the case, President Bush would be wise not to stand in Russia's way.